Almost every day seems to bring a new scare headline about bird flu, e.g. “Governor issues disaster declaration as new avian flu outbreak detected in Weld County” (Colorado Public Radio News). [1]
Below the headline, the articles typically warn that animal-to-human transmission is possible, and “mutations” of bird flu may occur in future. [2]
However, review of the CDC website on bird flu describes that risk to the public from bird flu remains “very low” and describes (as of this writing) only four cases of bird flu in humans having been identified in the entire United States, resulting in “mild to moderate” illness in the individuals affected (typically chicken farmers or ranchers with direct animal contact). [3] Yet the headlines seem to imply that we should be in a state of panic:
— “Fourth human case of bird flu confirmed as experts alarm of potential outbreak” (Uinterview on MSN, 7/6/24)
— “Bird flu vax, surveillance planned amid fears of deadly spring outbreak” (Toowoomba Chronicle 7 9 24)
— “Why increased testing is critical for the bird flu” (Forbes 7/7/24)
Yet reading through the articles, evidence of imminent or likely danger to humans seems lacking. At most, the articles (such as the Forbes piece) simply describe that “the virus could potentially mutate” which “could potentially lead to a pandemic.”
I’m not a virologist. Or a chicken farmer. So I don’t claim to be a scientific expert in bird flu. However, I have spent decades in medical law. I can read the published studies and reputable websites from CDC, Mayo clinic and the like. And I’ve become attuned to the language of scientific evidence. So I can say with some claim of experience that in the medical-legal world, to say something is “possible” is the weakest possible claim of proof.
In many Courts, an expert witness is not even permitted to opine that something is simply “possible” –unless they claim to have proof to a “reasonable degree of scientific probability” or similar level of evidence.
Yet according to what I’ve seen (CDC, Mayo, Cleveland Clinic websites and published articles) I’ve yet to see any evidence (above pure “possibility”) that bird flu is likely to “mutate” to some form of illness that will be both (a) widespread and (b) a serious/life threatening illness among humans.
One might, reasonably also take into account the length of time farmers have been in large-scale contact with domesticated fowl and cattle (many hundreds if not thousands of years). One might even conclude (statistically/historically) that a naturally- occurring animal-to-human transmission of avian flu, representing a widespread and deadly illness to humans (as opposed to affecting a few, individual farmers with heavy animal contact) would appear to be a relatively rare and unlikely event.
So, how can one explain a seeming disproportion between the actual (or likely) degree of threat to humans posed by avian flu, and headlines we’re seeing so much lately, that seem to imply an avian flu “pandemic” is imminent?
Perhaps another recent headline might help to explain: “Bird flu vaccine funds
awarded to Moderna amid multistate outbreak” [4] Apparently Moderna is now to receive a $176 Million grant from Health and Human services to develop human, mRNA vaccines against bird flu.
The phrase “follow the money” was made famous during the Watergate scandal (many years ago) though has passed into the lexicon as a sometimes useful tool, to help explain something that might not otherwise make sense.
Again, I’m not an avian flu expert. And, in the scheme of public health spending, $176 Million may be a relatively modest sum for even a low probability, potentially serious public health event. However, looking at the historical and current medical evidence of human transmission of bird flu to date (a generally rare, generally mild illness apart from individual farmers working directly with animals) it doesn’t seem that panic about “the next pandemic” from bird flu appears warranted at this point.
–Laurence M. Deutsch
[1] Colorado Public Radio News, 7/8/24.
[2] See, “Bird flu detected in another Michigan dairy herd” (CBS News Detroit, 7/9/24).
[3] https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/index.html
[4] USA Today, 7/3/24
